How GDP May Propel Boise Real Estate Higher

Businesses increased investment, helping out GDP, and the economy grew at a 5.9% interest helping reinforce the idea that the recession is coming to an end. As goes the nation, so goes the Boise real estate market, so this news is good to local industry insiders.

With Gross Domestic Product growth projected at a satisfying 5.7%, based on Commerce Department data from the 4th quarter, but actually came in at 5.9%, surpassing many expectations. Not since summer of 2003 have we seen such a rapid pace of growth in GDP. The economy expanded at a 2.2% annual rate in the third quarter. The Boise real estate market will see some benefit from these increases, plus other local market factors.

Major news agencies had indicated that the latter portion of 2009 posted a projected growth of 5.7%, including a total of all products and services inside United States borders. With the recovery seemingly in full swing in the last few months of 2009, our nation seemed to be emerging from the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression, but that growth has been stymied somewhat in the first quarter of 2010. A sharp brake in the pace at which businesses liquidated inventories combined with increased spending on equipment and software to boost growth in the fourth quarter, offsetting lackluster consumer spending and residential investment. As the nation goes, so goes Boise real estate.

Demand remains low as indicated by the reduction in actual growth of 1.9% from the projected growth of 2.2%, which reduced inventories and brought some balance back. Business inventories fell only $16.9 billion in fourth quarter instead of $33.5 billion estimated last month. Throughout the latter portion of the summer, inventory sales plummeted to $139 billion. In that same quarter, the changes in inventory stimulated a 3.88% increase in GDP by themselves. This was the biggest percentage contribution since the fourth quarter of 1987. As home materials companies liquidated inventory, Boise real estate reaped some benefit from that.

Not since the U.S. economy was recovering from World War II, in 1946, has it experienced the substantial drop in GDP of 2.4%. Even consumer spending projections had to be adjusted downward from 2% in January to the actual number of 1.7% increase. That was below the 2.8% rate in the prior quarter when consumption got a boost from the government’s “cash for clunkers” auto purchase program. A huge block of our economy normally comes from consumer spending, around 70%, but in the fourth quarter of 2009 it only added a minuscule 1.23%. With the rest of the nation still ironing out the best way to deal with the chaos, the Boise real estate market is dealing with it as well.

The fourth quarter GDP numbers increased, despite a slumping commercial real estate market, due to significant investment in software and required equipment by businesses. With business investment being much higher than the projected 2.9%, at 6.5% actually, improvement is on the way. In the preceding three months, it had slid by about 5.9%. Spending on new home construction grew at a slower 5% rate in the fourth quarter, instead of 5.7% estimated last month. With growth as high as 18.9%, the third quarter was a busy one. Contributing a .3% increase in GDP, imports and exports were significantly stronger in the fourth quarter than previously anticipated. With GDP factoring in to nearly every facet of business, Boise real estate is not independent.

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